I'm a glass-half-full person, and my early 2026 prediction is that it will be a good year. There are enough good trends in terms of GDP growth, controlling inflation, employment, and investment in manufacturing that I think will play out well. We're seeing growth numbers come out of the GDP that we have not seen for some time.
But then there are the disruptors that are yet to happen. The geopolitical situation is not exactly stable. And we keep thinking the trade picture has settled down, and then something new gets thrown in the mix. We need to face the fact that unless the US Supreme Court determines that tariffs are unlawful, they will continue to be used to control global trade and other policies. Tariff uncertainty may be around longer than initially expected as these major shifts take time to fully implement.
So while I see positive things going into 2026, you've got to be ready for disruptive events. And my messaging is always going to be the same. You have to almost plan for the unexpected in this world. To do that, you need some pretty good general strategies that are, if not already in place, well into the developmental stage.
The Real Macro Signal Nobody Is Talking About Broadly Enough
We talk a lot about the symptoms. Trade, inflation, manufacturing shifts, tariffs. But probably the biggest thing I see at a macro level that's embedded in all of these conversations is something more fundamental. Globalism versus protectionism and how that will play out in the long run.
The really fundamental question is, can countries work together globally and create a mutually beneficial outcome? Or will it lean more toward protection, where we don't trust the partner, and therefore you behave in a manner that only protects your interests?
So why does this matter? In some cases, national security. In others, the cost of goods/manufacturing. Inventory management strategies impacted by longer transit times, higher transportation costs due to longer distances between sourcing and delivering finished goods to a customer, are all factors impacted by the network. Establishing an optimal network of suppliers, distribution centers, etc., requires a good understanding of where you are sourcing raw materials, manufacturing, or staging inventory for finished goods.
Near-Shoring Is Becoming Real and It Will Change Networks
I see more and more evidence of long-term near-shoring and companies changing their networks through incentives to manufacture closer to home. This is playing out across the Americas, including Mexico, Canada, and possibly even South America, but the biggest moves are happening in the US and Mexico.
My point is that as more strategy is executed around incentives to manufacture closer to the point of consumption, it changes the network dynamic of where a company sources its supply-side product. Companies need to keep a close eye on how quickly that's changing the landscape. Near-shoring potentially avoids tariffs, reduces transit time, and lowers the transportation cost and inventory carrying costs. But it could easily also come with a higher cost of goods sold. This rationalization of tradeoffs and risk assessment is important, and as with most everything in supply chain logistics, it requires good data and complex math to support the cost impacts of making these types of network changes. Variables that are yet unknown need to be assumed and modified/reviewed on a regular basis (duties as a result of a tariff are a good example). Building plants and manufacturing capability is not a short-term investment. These are long-term investments with significant capital requirements, so they must meet cost reduction targets to make business sense.
The Carrier Side of the Equation Is Tightening
On the carrier side, I do see some things that may persist longer-term. While pricing and capacity (supply and demand economics) continue to ebb and flow over time, there have been some changes to note that get me thinking if capacity constraints may persist through 2026. There are a few factors at play here.
First, carriers have not been investing in equipment. Everyone's trying to cut costs and strike a balance among capacity, cost, and demand. But if you remove equipment and drivers, you're creating a harder problem to solve from a carrier perspective. And that's not a quick turnaround.
Then you have regulatory factors. CDL requirements in the US, for example. If you reduce the driver pool or tighten driving regulations, it creates additional capacity constraints.
I've also read articles recently where the carriers feel like they're behind the inflationary numbers. Inflation is going down, but they feel like they haven't been able to capture the impacts of inflation on their business. So I think that's something to watch in 2026, because the cost and the negotiation of freight play a major role in overall supply chain costs.
Higher demand at lower capacity creates a higher pricing point. Nobody wants to go through a freight recession again. There's been a lot of learning out of that. But the real question is whether there will be a balance between transportation capacity and demand.
Plan for the Unexpected
So why do I still see the glass half full? While yes, there are tailwinds and headwinds, overall, I do see trends that give me hope we are headed to a more balanced equation of supply and demand. What I don’t know, or anyone can know, is how complex policy and geopolitical situations will play out in 2026. For that reason and that reason alone, prepare for the unexpected.
Companies that can navigate this well are the ones that will be prepared to handle these disruptions, if they occur. They're building strategies now that can flex when the unexpected happens because in this world, the unexpected is pretty much guaranteed.
Steve Beda is EVP of Customer Solutions & Advisory at Trax. With extensive experience in supply chain automation and transportation logistics, Steve works closely with customers across industries to help them take full advantage of Trax's Total TSM/TSI Spend Intelligence services.
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