Peak season used to follow a predictable rhythm. July-August imports surge. September-October port congestion builds. November hits maximum capacity. December winds down gradually.
2025 shattered that pattern completely.
Instead of one traditional peak, the freight market experienced two distinct surges separated by months—what Steve Beda, EVP at Trax Technologies, calls "the bifurcated peak season." This wasn't a disruption. It was a fundamental restructuring of how goods flow through global supply chains.
And it might be the new normal.
Peak 1: The Tariff Rush (May-August)
The first peak had nothing to do with consumer demand. It was driven purely by regulatory uncertainty.
Importers front-loaded inventory ahead of anticipated tariffs. Container volumes elevated 18-22% above normal levels. Warehousing utilization hit multi-year highs as upstream firms stockpiled goods. Transportation capacity tightened, but not to traditional peak levels—this was procurement-driven, not consumption-driven.
The numbers tell the story:
- June upstream inventory: 58.7 (significant expansion)
- September upstream inventory: 62.3 (peak accumulation)
- Warehousing utilization: consistently above 55.0 through Q3
- Transportation capacity: moderate tightening without extreme constraints
Wholesalers, distributors, and manufacturers bore the cost burden. They paid for storage. They tied up working capital. They managed supplier relationships across extended lead times. All without knowing whether tariffs would actually materialize or when downstream retailers would accept inventory.
According to industry analysis from the Journal of Commerce, this type of anticipatory procurement typically adds 12-18% to total landed costs when accounting for extended storage, financing charges, and opportunity costs of tied-up capital.
The Missing Peak: September-October
Here's what didn't happen in 2025: the traditional fall import surge.
October imports declined 0.1% from September—only the second time in a decade this occurred. December 2025 container volumes are projected down 16.4% year-over-year. The September-October peak that every logistics provider plans for simply vanished.
Why? Because goods were already in the country. The May-August rush had satisfied Q4 demand months early. When October arrived, there was nothing left to import.
Transportation providers who staffed up for traditional peak season found themselves with excess capacity. Port operators who prepared for congestion watched berths sit empty. The entire infrastructure built around fall peak season ran below capacity.
This created a strange market dynamic: downstream demand was building (retailers preparing for holidays), but upstream procurement had already concluded. The traditional coordination between import timing and retail demand broke completely.
Peak 2: The Retail Transfer (November)
November delivered the second peak—and this one looked more familiar. Retailers finally accepted inventory for the holiday season. Goods flowed from wholesale warehouses to retail distribution centers. Transportation demand surged, but only downstream.
The data confirms this bifurcation:
- Transportation pricing: 64.9 (up 3.2 points)
- Downstream transportation pricing: 70.6
- Upstream transportation pricing: 63.0
- Differential: 7.6 points
Downstream lanes experienced genuine capacity constraints and pricing power for carriers. Upstream lanes remained soft. This wasn't a broad-based peak season—it was a targeted downstream surge while upstream sat quiet.
The 14.9-point spread between transportation pricing (64.9) and capacity (50.0) represented the second-largest gap since April 2022, confirming robust market health. But that health was concentrated in final-mile movements, not import lanes.
Why This Matters Beyond 2025
The bifurcated pattern wasn't random. It emerged from rational responses to regulatory uncertainty. And that uncertainty isn't going away.
Steve's forward view: "The 2025 peak season pattern may become the template if regulatory uncertainty continues. Firms will pull forward purchases to reduce risk, creating artificial peaks that are disconnected from consumer demand. The traditional September-October import surge could become a relic if companies continue to prioritize risk mitigation over just-in-time efficiency."
Consider the incentives:
- Regulatory uncertainty: When policy is unpredictable, early procurement reduces risk
- Working capital availability: Low-rate environments make early buying financially viable
- Supplier relationships: Early commitments secure capacity and favorable terms
- Obsolescence risk: For non-fashion goods with long shelf life, early procurement has limited downside
Each of these factors existed in 2025. Most will persist in 2026 and beyond.
The Infrastructure Mismatch
Here's the operational challenge: freight infrastructure is designed around traditional peak patterns. Ports staff up in September. Warehouses expand capacity in Q3—transportation carriers position equipment for October-November surges. Retailers plan inventory receipts for fall.
The bifurcated peak breaks all these assumptions.
If Peak 1 occurs in May-August, ports need capacity in summer, not fall. Warehouses need space in Q2-Q3, not Q4. Transportation capacity is needed for imports months before retail demand materializes. Retailers must accept inventory earlier or risk losing allocation.
This creates winners and losers:
- Winners: Flexible providers who can scale capacity dynamically, companies with year-round warehouse space, carriers with diverse lane portfolios
- Losers: Providers optimized for traditional peak timing, firms with rigid capacity, single-season specialists
Supply chain infrastructure investments have 7-10-year payback periods, making rapid adaptation to new seasonal patterns highly costly for established players.
The Financial Implications
Two peaks instead of one fundamentally changes financial planning.
Working capital: Traditional peak required 3-4 months of elevated inventory financing. Bifurcated peak requires 6-8 months, nearly doubling carrying costs.
Cash flow: Traditional peak concentrated expenses in Q3-Q4, allowing Q1-Q2 cash generation. Bifurcated peak spreads expenses across the entire year, eliminating recovery periods.
Forecasting: Traditional peak-aligned procurement timing with demand signals. A bifurcated peak requires procurement decisions 6 months before demand materializes, vastly increasing forecast risk.
Capacity planning: Traditional peak allowed providers to hire seasonal workers for 3-4 months. A bifurcated peak requires either permanent staffing increases or two separate hiring cycles.
For Trax customers analyzing freight data, 2025 showed two distinct cost spikes separated by months—requiring completely different budget allocation and accrual strategies than traditional single-peak planning.
What to Watch in 2026
Three scenarios for next year's peak season:
Scenario 1: Return to Normal
Trade policy stabilizes. Regulatory uncertainty resolves. Firms return to traditional just-in-time procurement. September-October import surge resumes. Single peak season returns.
Probability: Low
Scenario 2: Repeat Bifurcation
Ongoing uncertainty drives another early procurement wave. May-August surge repeats. November sees the downstream transfer. Infrastructure remains mismatched to demand.
Probability: Medium-High
Scenario 3: Permanent Shift
Companies accept a bifurcated peak as an optimal strategy regardless of policy. Early procurement becomes standard practice. Traditional peak season disappears permanently. Infrastructure adapts.
Probability: Medium
Steve's assessment: "If regulatory uncertainty continues, firms will continue pulling forward. That creates artificial peaks disconnected from consumer demand. The traditional model assumed procurement timing would track demand. That assumption is dead."
Strategic Imperatives for Bifurcated Peak
Companies navigating this new reality need:
Dynamic capacity contracts: Flexible agreements that allow scaling up in non-traditional periods rather than fixed peak-season commitments.
Extended visibility: Real-time tracking of inventory positioning across 6-8 month horizons instead of traditional 3-4 month windows.
Scenario-based planning: Multiple procurement plans triggered by policy developments rather than single-path execution.
Cash management: Financing structures that accommodate extended inventory holding periods without crushing working capital.
The firms that win aren't those hoping for a return to normal. They're those redesigning operations around bifurcated demand as the permanent state.
Understanding when and where your freight costs spike requires granular visibility into lane-level, mode-specific data across the entire year. Trax's analytics solutions provide normalized data that reveals whether your capacity planning aligns with emerging demand patterns—not outdated peak-season assumptions.
Ready to redesign your peak-season strategy to account for bifurcated demand patterns? Contact Trax to learn how freight intelligence transforms reactive planning into strategic positioning.